SMM October 16:
The most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened at 17,115 yuan/mt and fluctuated around 17,120 yuan/mt after opening. Mediocre end-use consumption of lead coupled with production resumptions at secondary lead smelters caused lead prices to struggle to rise, eventually closing at 17,100 yuan/mt, down 0.06%, forming a small bearish candlestick, with open interest at 41,899 lots.
Recently, the lead import window briefly opened, and imports of crude lead have been profitable since mid-to-late September. Subsequently, small volumes of high-grade imported refined lead from overseas may arrive at ports, and expectations of increased supply in the spot market are bearish for lead prices. In terms of downstream end-use consumption, the peak season for the e-bike replacement market is coming to an end, while orders for new EVs and the automotive sector show moderate performance. Due to tariff impacts, orders in the battery export sector are relatively mediocre. Currently, raw material inventories for refined lead can maintain supply, but in late October, attention should still be paid to the cost support from scrap battery and lead concentrate prices providing a floor for lead prices.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
